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Hatch predictions for 300+ US rivers — built from live water & weather, then confirmed against real fly-shop reports.

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Bull Run River below Bull Run Reservoir 2, near Bull Run

Bull Run River · Pacific NW · USGS gage 14139940

Coldwater (summer mean 13.5°C — prime coldwater).

Water
58°F
Flow
19 cfs
Air
66°F
Sky
7%
Pressure
30.11 in
Wind
4 mph
Predicted hatches · 2026-08-03
PredictedSpotted / Summer CaddisHydropsyche spp.1.00
Predicted by conditions; no reports yet. water 14.5°C (58°F) sits in the prime band (14-19°C); peak season; 8 days sustained ≥12°C; watch evening, last hour of light.
flies: Elk Hair Caddis #14-16, Iris Caddis, X-Caddis
PredictedPale Morning DunEphemerella spp.0.50
Predicted by conditions; no reports yet. water 14.5°C (58°F) sits in the prime band (13-18°C); shoulder of the season; 8 days sustained ≥12°C; watch late morning to early afternoon.
flies: PMD Comparadun #16-18, Sparkle Dun, Pheasant Tail #16

PREDICTED from the first-principles model only. Report-confirmed signal (fly-shop & forum reports) is the next milestone.